Markets favour United States — 50% vs Paraguay's 22%
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United States
50%
Draw
28%
Paraguay
22%
KalshiPolymarket
Sportsbook comparison
Platform
Their line
Implied
Link
Kalshi (market)
—
49.8%
DraftKings
48.8%
48.8%
Market agrees with sportsbook pricing.
Value Finder
Market discrepancy signals based on data only (not betting advice).
United StatesMarket 49.8% | Sportsbook 48.8%
Market Signal: consensusGap +1pp
DrawMarket 27.8% | Sportsbook 28%
Market Signal: consensusGap -0.2pp
ParaguayMarket 22.4% | Sportsbook 23.2%
Market Signal: consensusGap -0.8pp
Bet at sportsbook
Platform
Their line
Implied
Link
Sportsbet
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Bet365
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Ladbrokes
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TAB
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Odds history
Where the crowds disagree
Kalshi and Polymarket users are different. Their prices often reflect different biases.
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Kalshi
51%
29%
23%
Polymarket
51%
28%
23%
Paper picks
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United States face Paraguay at the FIFA World Cup 2026. Prediction markets on Kalshi and other exchanges currently price United States at 50% to win, a draw at 28%, and Paraguay at 22%. United States are the market favorite at 50% before kickoff. Probly aggregates live World Cup 2026 odds in plain English so fans can see what traders think without reading order books. Odds refresh about every 60 seconds as new money enters the market.