We grade every resolved World Cup market against the actual outcome. No vibes, no cherry-picked highlights — just Brier scores, calibration curves and an honest ledger of misses.
Tournament accuracy across resolved markets. Full time-bucket curves publish as more matches finish.
Historical simulation only. Not financial advice.
If you bet $10 on every favourite
+$41
If you bet $10 on every underdog
-$100
Markets vs random picking
+46.7%
Every resolved market is scored against its closing-line probability and the actual outcome. We use the Brier score because it rewards calibration, not just hit rate.
Mean squared error between predicted probability and outcome (0/1). Lower is better. We report it for every market, every day.
We freeze probabilities at the canonical market close. No retroactive editing. The line you saw is the line we score.
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